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DENVER, CO — November 19, 2025
After a nail-biting start characterized by unseasonably warm temperatures and barren slopes, the 2025-2026 Colorado ski season has officially received its lifeline. A significant weather pattern shift this week is ending a prolonged dry spell, bringing heavy snowfall to the high country just in time for the critical Thanksgiving holiday rush.
The “Thanksgiving Miracle” Forecast
For weeks, Colorado skiers watched nervously as snowpack levels hovered at a dismal 14% of the median average as of November 16. However, forecast models from the National Weather Service (NWS) have flipped the script.
A potent storm system moving through the state from November 19–21 is expected to deliver widespread accumulation, with “high-end” scenarios suggesting up to 18 to 24 inches for favored peaks in the San Juan Mountains and the Park Range near Steamboat Springs.
- The “Expected” Scenario (80% Confidence): The Park Range is slated for 8–12 inches, while the central mountains—home to resorts like Crested Butte and the peaks above Aspen—could see 6–19 inches depending on localized bands.
- The “High-End” Scenario (10% Chance): If the storm over-performs, localized totals could hit 2 feet in the southwest, particularly around Wolf Creek Pass, and up to 18 inches in the northern mountains.
“It’s looking like consistent snow is finally starting to be a reality in Colorado’s mountainous terrain,” noted a forecaster from the Denver Gazette. This system is being followed immediately by a secondary pattern showing a “risk of heavy snow” persisting from November 24 through November 30, potentially setting up a powder-filled opening week for many major resorts.
Resort Roundup: Who is Open and Who is Next?
The snow could not be better timed. While snowmaking crews have battled warm days to get foundational runs open, natural snow is essential for expanding terrain beyond the “white ribbon of death.”
Currently Open:
- Arapahoe Basin, Keystone, Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, Winter Park, and Loveland: These early risers are operating with limited terrain.
- Eldora: Opened recently for 7-day operations. Conditions are reported as “thin and early-season,” with no beginner terrain yet available.
Opening Imminently (Thanksgiving Week Push):
- Wolf Creek: Scheduled to open Saturday, Nov. 22, reporting a fresh 9-inch storm total this week.
- Purgatory & Powderhorn: Also targeting Nov. 22.
- Beaver Creek, Crested Butte, & Granby Ranch: Slated for Wednesday, Nov. 26.
- Steamboat & Howelsen Hill: Opening Nov. 29 (Steamboat’s location in the Park Range positions it perfectly to capitalize on the current northern-biased storm track).
- Aspen Mountain & Snowmass: Opening Nov. 27.
The Seasonal Outlook: A Weak La Niña
Looking beyond Thanksgiving, the 2025-2026 season will be defined by a weak La Niña pattern.
According to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), La Niña conditions are favored to persist through February 2026 before transitioning to neutral in early spring. Historically, La Niña winters in Colorado favor the northern mountains (Steamboat, Winter Park, Rocky Mountain National Park) with consistent snowfall and cooler temperatures.
The southern mountains and the I-70 corridor can still see average snowfall during weak La Niña years, but the consistency is often more variable. However, with the current storm track hammering the San Juans (southwest), the season is defying typical La Niña expectations right out of the gate.
Snowpack Recovery
The dramatic turnaround is visible in the data. Just days ago, the statewide snowpack was in the 8th percentile (one of the driest starts since 2016). As of November 19, snow water equivalent (SWE) numbers are rebounding sharply.
“The November drought is over,” reported local meteorologists. While the Front Range and Denver metro area may see rain or slushy mix rather than accumulation from this immediate cycle, the high country is successfully building the base required for a sustainable season.
Skier Advisory: Early Season Conditions Persist
Despite the fresh blanket of white, experts warn that early-season hazards remain high.
- Obstacles: Coverage is still thin off-piste. Rocks, stumps, and downed timber are barely covered.
- Terrain: Most resorts are offering intermediate (Blue) and advanced terrain only; beginner terrain is limited as it often requires more snowmaking coverage to be safe.
- Gear: It is highly recommended to use “rock skis” or older boards until the base depth exceeds 30-40 inches.
As the lifts spin and the flakes fall, the sentiment across Colorado is one of relief. The 2025-2026 season may have arrived late, but it is arriving loudly.
With the dry start, is it safe to use my new skis?
No. Experts strongly recommend using “rock skis” (older equipment you don’t mind damaging) through early December. Despite the Thanksgiving storm forecast, the base depth at most resorts is still under 25 inches. Hazards like tree stumps, rocks, and creek beds are barely covered. Wait until the base depth consistently exceeds 35–40 inches before bringing out your new 2026 gear.
Which resorts are the best bet for early powder this Thanksgiving?
Due to the northern-biased storm track and the emerging La Niña pattern, Steamboat and Wolf Creek are your best bets.
Wolf Creek: Often leads the state in early accumulation; they are reporting a 9-inch storm total leading into their Nov. 22 opening.
Steamboat: The current storm cycle favors the Park Range, where Steamboat is located, with forecasts predicting 8–12 inches of fresh snow for their Nov. 29 opening.
